Russia now appears set to pressure Ukraine into accepting disadvantageous peace terms by inflicting horrific damage and casualties on the population of Ukraines major cities, strangling its economy and ability for resupply, and potentially causing a humanitarian disaster by disrupting the spring harvest. Moscow was perhaps calculating that missile strikes and a. POLINA BELIAKOVA is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College. Yet many of Russias failures will require years of changes and will force the Russian military to rethink its training, organizational structure, culture, and planning to improve readiness and military performance. "It all started there, and it will end there, with the . The rest of this brief is organized into three sections. In the initial phase of the war, Russian ground forces invaded on four main fronts: After suffering a series of setbacks that are highlighted later in this analysis, the Russian military began to withdraw forces from Kyiv around April 2022 and concentrate its efforts on eastern and southern Ukraine. Artillery shells in Scranton, Pennsylvania, February 2023, s military has defied expectations in its war with Russia, and many analysts attribute its success to U.S. help. RFE/RL Analysis of military situation in Ukraine by Michael Kofman, Director of Russia Studies Program at Center for Naval Analyses, New Line Magazine: Open Source data on war in Ukraine, Task & Purpose (site for military journalism) analysis of Russian strategic failures in Ukraine, Institute for Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Institute for Study of War: UkraineConflict Updates, King's College London: Ukraine war analysis, Harvard Kennedy School: Ukraine war analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Council on ForeignRelations Global Conflict Tracker: Ukraine, 2020 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POLICYDOCTRINE AND ANALYSIS, Russian Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Doctrine (Congressional Research Service), 2020 Russian Federation Presidential Statement on State Nuclear Policy (in Russian), Analysis of 2020 Russian Nuclear Deterrence Policy (from War on the Rocks site), Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 2022 Analysis of Russian Nuclear Weapon Use Policy, Analysis of Russian 202 Nuclear Doctrine with original text in English (from RealClear Defense site), Due to rapidly changing events expect these resources to change and update as circumstances require, Turkey and Middle East Resources on War in Ukraine, https://libguides.gwu.edu/c.php?g=1230210, RFE/RL Analysis of military situation in Ukraine, Russian Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Doctrine, 2020 Russian Federation Presidential Statement on State Nuclear Policy, Analysis of 2020 Russian Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Analysis of Russian 202 Nuclear Doctrine with original text in English, Russia, Eurasia and Central/Eastern Europe. Lower ratios are generally insufficient to pacify hostile populations. Furthermore, the Ministry of Defense, led by Taran, and the Ministry of Strategic Industries dragged their feet in reforming procurement practices and failed to place orders for crucial weapons. This leads us to believe that the rapid Russian advance along the Black Sea coast has stretched its logistics and, coupled with stiffening Ukrainian resistance, has nearly halted Russias eastward momentum. In a May 2022 opinion poll, 82 percent of Ukrainians responded that Ukraine should not hand over any of its territory to Russia as part of a peace deal.63. With such small numbers, the United States and its NATO allies faced a prolonged insurgency that led to the overthrow of the Afghan government in 2021.38 The force ratio of Russian soldiers in Ukraine was far too small to hold territoryincluding citiesfor long. While the advantage in numbers, artillery, and cannon fire from armored vehicles allowed Russian forces to quickly advance toward Kyiv, Ukrainian forces inflicted significant casualties using anti-tank ambushes. 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. One included collecting and analyzing primary and secondary sources on the war, including military and intelligence assessments from Western countries. The withdrawal of some units identified by the Russian MoD, such as the 3rd and 150th Motorised Divisions, also matter very little. Today, the distinctive feature of the war is a roughly 600-mile front that extends just west of Kherson along the Black Sea; moves east through Melitopol, Mariupol, and other southern cities; cuts northeast through the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, including the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk; continues northwest near Izyum; and then intersects the Russian border north of Kharkiv. The Scowcroft Center Military Fellows Program, housed by the Forward Defense practice, hosts military fellows from participating branches of the US military and the armed forces of US allies and partners each year as part of a twelve-month fellowship program. Russia has now committed virtually all the forces it sent to the theater, and it now appears to be leveraging foreign fighters for reinforcement. Russia-Ukraine War: Insights and Analysis Lessons from a year of war in Ukraine One year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Harvard Kennedy School faculty members reflect on how the conflict has changed the way we think about vital global issues and what lessons it has taught us. The planned amphibious operation against Odesa again failed to materialize, though it is still possible this week. With its pre-war Soviet-era artillery being pummeled by Russian counterbattery fire, Ukraine quickly clamored for longer-range Western artillery and rockets. It asks: What are some of the most important military lessons from the first three months of the war? Hospitallers, a volunteer paramedic organization, has trained hundreds of paramedics to work on the frontlines and evacuated thousands of wounded combatants and civilians since 2014. These problems contributed to the suspension or firing of several senior military officials, such as Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, for dereliction during the offensive against Kharkiv; Lieutenant General Vlaislav Yershov, commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv; and Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, following the sinking of the flagship cruiser Moskva.12. The Russian military also faced significant challenges seizing and holding territory. All rights reserved. Just under the surface, western allies are struggling to maintain the visage of unity. Military Analysis. For Ukraine, it could be a question of carrying out a successful defence to blunt Russian offensives and, from there, perhaps move towards peace talks. What do these lessons indicate about the future of the war in Ukraine? How technology, both old and new, has shaped the war in Ukraine so far. Ukraine may offer a glimpse into the future of artillery. Without electronic detection and counterbattery radar providing general direction-finding capability, [unmanned aerial vehicles] cannot be directed to hunt the right areas for enemy artillery.. By the time Russian forces had secured Hostomel Airport in late February 2022 and were in place to launch an attack on Kyiv, they lacked the combat power to seize the city. What really matters is how you employ them. For example, the 9M729 cruise missile, which is fired from the Iskander-K short-range ballistic missile system, is one of the Russian militarys most advanced weapons systems with precision-strike capabilities.22 The cruise missile has roughly a half dozen socket attachment points that permit data to move through the heat shield. Nevertheless, the Russian military faced numerous challenges in conducting its air campaign. This ability to form a uniquely comprehensive foundational intelligence picture Ukraine is providing a very good study when assessing the future of artillery, said Nick Reynolds, land warfare analyst for Britains Royal United Service Institute. Naval War College. Biden speaks with the press outside the White House on Friday, March 17. Arlington, It is an important transportation hub and sits astride a nexus of road networks. RT.ie is the website of Raidi Teilifs ireann, Ireland's National Public Service Media. Sea supply routes into Ukraine remain completely cut off and aerial resupply remains severely restricted, but ground resupply routes remain open (mainly through Poland and Romania). Finally, the Russian TOR-M2 air-defense system utilized an oscillator designed in the United Kingdom, which is located in the computer that controls the radar.23 These supply chain challenges will likely impact Russias short- and long-term supply of components to conduct stand-off attacks, forcing Russia to look for substitute markets. Alongside that, they are engaged in an extensive air campaign, aimed at destroying infrastructure, killing civilians and eroding support for the Zelensky government. Ukraines military has defied expectations in its war with Russia, and many analysts attribute its success to U.S. help. Still, Russia has adopted the so-called Grozny tactics of indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and near-complete razing of cities. Second, the Russian air force faced recurring logistics challenges, including running low on stocks of long-range, precision-guided munitions. At this current time, there are large formations of Russian troops that are uncommitted to the fight and predicting how these formations will be used is developing in an obsession for western military analysts. Moreover, and except as provided below with respect to NDIA's right and ability to delete or remove a posting (or any part thereof), NDIA does not endorse, oppose, or edit any opinion or information provided by you or another user and does not make any representation with respect to, nor does it endorse the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement, or other material displayed, uploaded, or distributed by you or any other user. One of the main reasons security assistance has succeeded in buttressing the Ukrainian war effort but failed elsewhere has to do with the motivation of Ukraines leadership. Janes analyst Tom Bullock delivers analysis on the events in Ukraine. Both of these units are permanently stationed well within 250 km of the Ukrainian border and could easily move back to Biden says the ICC's war crimes case against Putin is justified. The quality of Ukrainian forces was a major change from Syria, where Russia, Syria, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and militia units from Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestinian territory, and other areas faced a relatively weak mix of insurgents. The Leopard 2 series began production in the late 1970s and, as a third generation main battle tank, it is seen as being more advanced in terms of design and its integrated technology. Some of these Russian units were isolated with limited or no logistics, miles ahead of the main body of Russian ground units.27, The Russian army also operated with fewer support soldiers than many other militaries. If Russia controls the airspace over Ukraine, then these new tanks and Ukraine's existing armoured formations are vulnerable to air and missile attack. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied here are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or any other US government agency. As the war in Ukraine continues into its third month, one thing that became clear on its third day still holds true: that the Kremlin has severely overestimated the Russian military's capabilities and deeply underestimated the skill and resolve of the Ukrainians. ANALYSIS From RT Radio 1's News At One, reaction to German decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine from Fabrice Pothier, Chief Executive of Rasmussen Global political consultancy and Kyiv-based journalist Emmanuelle Chaze. Social media indicates the frequency of deployments has increased, with daily sightings of equipment on the move at their highest since Drones and counter-battery radar, which can instantly pinpoint artillery as it fires, have made shoot-and-scoot tactics a necessity. The declaration by the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, that the certification of the Nord Stream 2 project would not now go ahead, while clearly very Its pilots and air defenses have prevented Russian fighter jets from conquering . These adjustments improved Russias ability to move spare parts, munitions, fuel, and other matriel to forward-deployed Russian forces. The late autumn and winter weather has effectively shut down major operations and we have seen the development of positional, and attritional, warfare. Microsoft worked closely with the Ukrainian government and cybersecurity staff from other governments and private companies to identify and remediate Russian threat activity against Ukrainian networks before and after the Russian invasion.52 In January 2022, the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center identified wiper malware in over a dozen Ukrainian networks and alerted the Ukrainian government.53 Microsoft established a secure line of communication with Ukrainian cyber officials to provide real-time threat information and offer technical support to assist Ukrainian efforts to identify and defeat Russian-linked cyberattacks over the course of the war.54 Microsoft worked with Ukrainian government officials to enable controlled folder access, a Microsoft Defender feature, and helped Ukraine run endpoint detection and response solutions.55. Russian forces continue to enjoy the most success in the south, where they are aided by their naval superiority in the Black Sea. IranSource provides a holistic look at Irans internal dynamics, global and regional policies, and posture through unique analysis of current events and long-term, strategic issues related to Iran. Even worse for Moscow, NATO is likely to expand to Finland and Sweden. Russias challenges raised serious questions about its competence in fire and maneuver. Janes delivers persistent monitoring of Russian troop and equipment sightings that connects the unit from the ORBAT, location, source data, exercise and mission (where relevant known), equipment with associated numbers, vessel ID, tail numbers, ground For example, Ukrainian manufacturers make an excellent antitank weapon, the Stuhna-P, but the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not order enough of them in 2021. It could also be argued that they have brought a level of flexibility to the overall Russian army which, dogged by traditional command and control systems, has proved to be less than dynamic thus far. After losing the first phase, what next for Russia in Ukraine? Doing so required both reforming the defense institutions and increasing security cooperation with the West. Todays rocket launchers, such as HIMARS, fire just a few guided rockets accurate enough to destroy a pinpoint target like a bridge, with accuracy similar to that of howitzers. Towed systems take longer to displace, he said. by Seth G. Jones. 2023 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Therein lies the classic dilemma familiar to designers of tanks and battleships of how to balance firepower, protection and mobility. The West Needs to Send Ukraine More Arms, More Quickly, How Moscow Squandered Its Power and Influence. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Over the first month and a half of the war, more than 40 percent of Russias destructive cyberattacks were aimed at Ukrainian critical infrastructure sectors, while another 32 percent targeted Ukrainian government sites.48, Russia also conducted an electronic warfare campaign against Ukrainian forces. 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The simmering war in eastern, between 2014 and early 2022 was not enough to compel the Ukrainian leadership to implement crucial changes in its security sector. The attack galvanized Ukraines leadership to discard parochial concerns and implement a series of reforms and battlefield innovations that help account for the countrys tremendous performance in the war. The best way to defeat the Russians in a cauldron battle is for Ukraine to deny encirclement. In addition, the tendency of poorly trained Russian forces to conduct massive bombardments of towns and cities in a war of attrition, rather than conducting basic fire and maneuver, will make it difficult to seize and hold substantial territory against entrenched Ukrainian ground units with Western weapons systems and a pipeline of Western logistical support. Can Xi Get Chinese Citizens to Stop Saving and Start Spending? Billions of dollars in aid and decades of training, advising, and institution building did not stop the armies of Afghanistan and Iraq from collapsing. There is mounting evidence that Russian forces are becoming more effective in counter-battery fires and have had success in destroying Ukrainian artillery. Analysts note the impressive arsenal of NATO-compatiable equipment already on the battlefield or in the pipeline for Ukraine - infantry fighting vehicles from the US, the United Kingdom and. In NATO armies, such training would be carried out over a number of months and this programme will now have to be seriously truncated. Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has seen several iterations of its army seriously impacted, first in the open war of movement of the early weeks and then in the attritional, defensive slog of late 2022. As Winston Churchill remarked on the eve of World War II, appeasement only increases a dictators appetite: And do not suppose that this is the end. Following a relative lull in activity after 1 January, Russia's armed forces appear to have entered their highest level of activity and movement since the autumn-winter build-up began in late October. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. The Ukraine war also points to what seems to be a growing convergence between howitzers and rocket launchers. Ukraines success does not demonstrate that U.S. security assistance works writ large but, rather, that U.S. security assistance is most useful in the cases when those receiving the aid are driven to do whatever it takes to strengthen their forces. In that context, the Leopard 2s and other main battle tanks would play a key role in Ukrainian defensive actions . 2023 Atlantic Council As Ukraines largest port, it accounts for 80 percent of the countrys maritime commerce, and its loss would render Ukraine landlocked. Its twin V12 turbo diesel allows for a top speed of 68kmh to a maximum range of 500km. Nonetheless, Johnson still prefers armored self-propelled howitzers. The United States, European Union, the Ukraine, and NATO will benefit from the ongoing combat in the Ukraine. While the war in Ukraine is likely far from over, this analysis comes to several initial conclusions. vehicle markings and estimated sighting date. Huw Williams of our EMEA news team chairs a discussion focused on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine asking why were the Russian actions so different to expectations, what were they trying to achieve and what went wrong? Mein Nisinta Seirbhse Poibl na hireann, We need your consent to load this rte-player content. NO ARCHIVES. A highly regarded news source for defense professionals in government and industry, National Defense offers insight and analysis on defense programs, policy, business, science and technology. By At 27 tons for the former and 40 tons for the latter, the internal autoloader would have kept the crew under armor and not needing to get out to reload. Confronted with this immediate, existential threat, Kyiv focused on a single priority: maximizing the effectiveness of its forces fighting against Russia. As researchers who study how bombing is used to obtain concessions from other countries, we think Russia's strategy of attacking strategic Ukrainian military targets will likely be an effective way of using force to make Ukraine meet Russia's demands, such as giving up territory. Russia is creating Russian-language schools and revising the education systemincluding the curriculumin these areas, as Moscow attempts to reeducate locals in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine. First, the Russian army faced significant logistical and maintenance challenges operating in contested areas inside of Ukraine. These and other challenges contributed to high attrition rates for the Russian military, including the partial or complete destruction of at least 1,000 main battle tanks, 350 pieces of artillery, 36 fixed-wing aircraft, and 50 helicopters.59. Russias approach to combined arms warfare was generally to hammer Ukrainian positions with artillery and other stand-off weapons and then to send armored vehicles forward on a maneuver termed reconnaissance to contact, designed to overwhelm what remained of Ukrainian defensive lines.26 But because of the Ukrainian militarys effective use of anti-armor munitions, such as anti-tank guided missiles and loitering munitions, Russian ground forces had difficulty advancing and seizing ground. Air and air defense: Russia has still failed to establish air superiority and is suffering huge aircraft losses as a result. UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraines politics, economy, civil society, and culture. NATO officials estimate that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured, captured or gone missing in the . Janes provides trusted insight, data and analysis across military capabilities, country risk, terrorism and insurgency, and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. Theyre a lot more durable as far as being moved around a lot, and there are fewer maintenance requirements for a howitzer towed behind a truck, especially if you have long distances to cover.. Russian cyber and electronic warfare capabilities have largely been neutralized by effective Ukrainian countermeasures, with help from Western state and non-state entities. These are often dismissed in western media as ex-convicts and mercenaries and their use has been associated with a perceived deterioration in Russian capacity and battlefield atrocities. Supporting Ukraines armed forces with donations has become a daily routine for thousands of Ukrainian citizens and businesses. It has forcibly deportedor, in some cases, tortured and executedpro-Ukrainian civilians and encouraged ethnic Russians (and pro-Russian civilians) to remain.6 Russia has also replaced Ukrainian government officials with hand-picked, pro-Russian officials. New technologies such as robotics, electric-powered vehicles and longer-range shells and rockets may tweak the variables somewhat. For instance, the Come Back Alive foundation, a nonprofit that aims to equip Ukrainian forces, improved Ukraines procurement processand bypassed the Ministry of Defenses bureaucracyby crowdfunding the purchase of communication devices, laptops, generators, telescopic sights, and advanced drones for combat and reconnaissance. At the same time, highly expensive aircraft and limited stockpiles of smart munitions may be allocated to distant targets in the enemy flank, rather than close-air support. By However, Russia will likely make some adjustments over the course of the war, including improving logistics. A police officer inspects the remains of a missile that landed in the street, after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February . Third, Russian offensive cyber operations and electronic warfare failed to blind Ukrainian command and control efforts or threaten critical infrastructure for a prolonged period. There is going to be a mix of artillery, Johnson said. For Russia, annexation of these areas is a fait accompli. Washington, DC 20036. Weapons such as T-72 tanks, anti-air missiles, and drones have all affected how the conflict has unfolded. A weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe, Inflection Points focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them. The NATO alliance is the most powerful military alliance on Earth. The Russians can't possibly defend themselves against NATO. Russian military doctrine toward taking cities is both grimly practical and deadly, favoring heavy artillery, missiles and bombs to terrify civilians and push them to flee, while killing. While Russias force is diminishing throughout Ukraine, Russia still poses a threat to major Ukrainian cities. Will Leopard 2 tanks be a game-changer in Ukraine? The Conversation asked three scholars to briefly explain what this attack means for the people of Ukraine and the world. For Ukrainian forces, with finite manpower and equipment resources, this is a punishing phase of operations. Ukraine may offer a glimpse into the future of artillery 2s and other matriel to forward-deployed Russian forces becoming. Struggling to maintain the visage of unity surface, Western allies are struggling to maintain the of... Russian forces are becoming More effective in counter-battery fires and have had success in destroying Ukrainian artillery Motorised. Surface, Western allies are struggling to maintain the visage of unity West Needs to Send More. Strategic and International Studies raised serious questions about its competence in fire maneuver. Confronted with this immediate, existential threat, Kyiv focused on a single priority: maximizing effectiveness. 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