how will the war between russia and ukraine end

By Frank Langfitt, international correspondent, Children look out from a carriage window as a train prepares to depart from a station in Lviv, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022. For his bravery, for his confidence in Ukraine and for his Glory to Ukraine!, Original reporting and incisive analysis, direct from the Guardian every morning. "Because everyone who is not very good in [finding] information will say, okay, Putin says we won, we are still a great country," he added. And even though the fall of the Soviet Union was notable for its lack of bloodshed, many in Ukraine refer to today's conflict as a true "war of independence.". If they lose, their democracy is gone, and the vision of becoming a normal European state that motivates many of the young is gone as well. In fact, in his speeches about Ukraine, he criticizes the Soviet leadership for creating Ukraine, the Soviet republic that later became an independent country, on a whim. When opposing groups reach an agreement in other types of conflicts such as an agreement to end a labor union strike, for instance there is typically a government in place to help enforce its agreement. The Ukrainian flag flutters between buildings destroyed in bombardment in the Ukrainian town of Borodianka. We see four elements to a solution. As a scholar of peace and conflict, I have 20 years of experience working to help people establish and maintain peace after conflict. The UK will invest an extra 5bn in the armed forces over two years and increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. By Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff Writer. But at some point later this year, President Biden is certain to seek more money for Ukraine, and we'll see how the Republicans in the House respond. But if Russia were to lose the war, it could place Putin in immediate danger of being overthrown either by a popular uprising or in a palace coup. Readers submitted these questions in our live blog. Russian attacks in Ukraine killed at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians in the first year of this conflict, and more than 13 million Ukrainians have had to flee their homes about half have left the country altogether. A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight. Grigory Yavlinsky, the founder of Russia's Yabloko party, a social-liberal party that has deputies in five regional parliaments, told Newsweek from Moscow that propaganda may affect how a loss for Russia is presented. First, the Ukrainian offensive in the fall of 2022 revealed a host of weaknesses within the Russian military. Pifers research focuses on nuclear arms control, Ukraine, Russia, and European security. But some take aim at the price tag, Russia's at war with Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers clean their weapons as they prepare to head back to war in Irpin on March 5, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. The plan got lukewarm welcomes in both Russia and Ukraine. However, things changed dramatically at the start of September. Video. ", Bondarev said he isn't sure that Putin will be able to convince the population, however, as "most people don't want war, they want peace.". Stanford Medicine researchers have found a mechanism behind one of the most common symptoms of long COVID shortness of breath. That does not withstand serious scrutiny. However, the Ukrainian governments position hardened later in March, as the liberation of towns such as Bucha and Irpin revealed large-scale Russian atrocities. 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He added: "Unlike in the first two scenarios, this is the one where Putin has [the] most bargaining power and a chance to save his life.". Russia and Ukraine had signed the Minsk peace accord . A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. Less than two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the country's people and armed forces have mounted a staunch resistance against Russia's forces. In February 2023, a senior Ukrainian official said that peace talks are out of the question without Ukraines reclaiming its territory that Russia overtook 2022. Should Putin be unable to win the war on his preferred terms, he may eventually be forced to step down as Russian leader, Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned publicly over the invasion of Ukraine last year, told Newsweek. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. It's perhaps the only thing more complicated than sanctions enforcement, and this question touches on both. Conversely, Russia successfully halted a wider collapse of its forces and appears to be in a stronger position militarily heading into the spring than it was in the fall of 2022. Mowatt-Larssens greatest concern is that at some point in the next year, Putin will decide that his army is no longer capable of taking back what he views as Russian territories. Since that time, major cities across Ukraine have been attacked with missile strikes. According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. The U.S. is also training about 100 Ukrainians on the Patriot anti-missile system in Oklahoma. Keep in mind that India and China are among the two biggest importers of Russian oil, and sanctioning over a third of the world's population would be very difficult, if not impossible. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be "devastated" in the process, the strategists said. As many as 1.5 million people have fled to neighboring countries in Europe for safety. One side or the other has to score a decisive victory, or they need to get to negotiating a settlement. Photo courtesy of Chaplains Khalil Abdur-Rashid and Samia Omar, The spring will be a race between Russian mobilization and the transformation of Ukraines army., Mark Hertling, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general, 20 years post-invasion, many Iraq veterans havent found peace, William Hanage on COVID lessons we havent learned, Why China has edge on AI, what ancient emperors tell us about Xi Jinping. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, and the invasion is now in its third week. As such, many Ukrainians are against the war, with "no war" becoming a common slogan. Stanford, California 94305. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. "We need to think in terms of years, not months.". John Moore/Getty Images "Independence Day," marking the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now referred to as "the restoration of independence." What will it take to end the war in Ukraine? So far, however, Moscow has shown no readiness to negotiate seriously. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly spends only $44 per barrel on production, meaning there's still plenty of profit flowing into the country, even with the price cap and market rate where it is now. More turbulence likely ahead after bank collapses. Any threat [Putin] thought NATO could have presented to Russia he has far exceeded in damaging his own interests for a military threat that NATO never posed.. In a regime like Russiawhich is clearly not a democracy, but also not quite a dictatorshipif you win a war, you're the great hero; if you lose a war, you have shown your incompetence and you'll be removed, which I have explored in my own research. Sergei Supinksy/AFP via Getty Images Though Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the late December attack on a military base within Russia, Budanov said he was "glad to see it" and added "deeper and deeper" strikes would come inside of Russia. So in Ukraine, people mark the fall of the Soviet Union with "Independence Day," while in Russia, it's understood as a reformation of the same state with its roots in the Russian Empire. In the coming weeks, Hertling expects that Russia will likely increase missile attacks and its air and naval forces will continue to strike against Ukraines infrastructure. Ask any U.S. military member who's worked with the Ukrainians and they'll tell you the Ukrainians are extremely tech-savvy and extremely fast learners. Predictions are difficult. The only way to keep Russia from fighting or winning this war is to give the Ukrainians military support, she said. "The situation in Moscow will proceed rapidly, with the siloviki pushing Putin out of power. If the costs of war including human lives, money or more intangible qualities, such as prestige are low, one side might keep fighting for its goals. I thus believe the West should provide Ukraine with significant military assistance now, so that the Ukrainian military can either push the Russians out or, at a minimum, make such progress on the battlefield that Kremlin calculations change and Moscow negotiates a settlement on terms that Kyiv can accept. "I think that once they say farewell to the delusions, and find themselves in a new reality where Putin cannot deliver anythingonly fear and some kind of threat of repression against his own peoplethat will change the situation.". But polls show that does not equal pacifism, with the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians supporting a prolonged defensive war. Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told ABC News in an interview shared by the outlet on Wednesday that he expects the "hottest" fighting between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces to occur in March. Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images It seems like a number of American officials understand that, having summed up their position as "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine war: Putins travel options extremely limited after international criminal court warrant as it happened, ICCjudges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes. "We are in for a very long fight, this is not going to be short, this is not only going to be about Ukraine. A Division of NBCUniversal. Many have continued their careers, working in tech, education or manufacturing here. Beliefs in the costs of war and the costs of peace also matter. Tens of thousands have died, including many civilians. On Tuesday, Zelensky also spoke in an address of an upcoming aggressive effort from Russia's military, though he did not provide a timeline. Center for International Security and Cooperation, Ukraine is the victim. But the Russian goal of "denazification" as a stated offensive goal has not faded into the background. If it runs out, then Russia could unleash its fighting planes. hide caption. Chinas president is to speak virtually with his Ukrainian counterpart, probably after a visit to Moscow next week, the paper reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. Europe has united in support of Ukraine, with Finland and Sweden abandoning decades of neutrality to seek to join NATO, and Berlin junking five decades of German policy toward the Soviet Union and Russia. March 1, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EST. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine. First, restrictions on military operations along the NATO/Russia border. Chinas president, Xi Jinping, is planning to visit Russia as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, according to Reuters. A new look at immigrants outsize contribution to innovation in the U.S. The first scenario, a chaotic retreat caused by a "striking Ukrainian offensive on one or multiple fronts" would include a "huge panic amongst 600,000 Russian post-2014 annexation settlers in Crimea, and Russian collaborators in the Donbas, trying to escape. Moreover, Ukrainians have seen in Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, and many other cities and towns what Russian occupation means. The U.S. set the conflict in motion by the way it viewed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, formally recognizing some countries, like Russia, as successor states, but not others, like Ukraine, leaving them in a geopolitical gray zone. Ukraine's air defenses have been surprisingly effective against Russia's air force. Apart from a few exceptions, almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory. Stanford University. The smaller image shows Ukrainian servicemen next to a T-80 tank in an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine on December 29, 2022. In the meantime, NATO countries "would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance.". "Putin will find it quite difficult to convince his own elite that this victory was worth all the losses, and everything that they have lostI don't feel that they would be very much happy about this, that okay, we can get a few Ukrainian villages, and that should compensate for all the losses," he said. Mr. A Ukrainian flag adorns an electrical post in Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region, on Feb. 13, nearly a year after . NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. Mykhnenko said a third scenario could see the war in Ukraine rage on for another two years, with growing discontent in Russia, a slow Russian retreat in some places, and troops holding the frontline in others. hide caption. Xi also plans to speak with Volodymyr Zelenskiy for the first time since the start of the war, according to the Wall Street Journal. Whether you're looking back, trying to make sense, or looking ahead, searching for hope, our reporters are here to help you sort through it. Some questions were edited lightly for length and clarity. The Western countries have gone from training the Ukrainians on specific systems to training larger units on how to carry out coordinated attacks. As have been calls on Putin to end the war, from Western heads of state to the pope. That could drag on for months or years. Russia is seen as having made less progress than it expected. Concerned about the high probability of Russia's outright invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has warned European allies that there is but a narrow window of opportunity to deter Putin . Yermak also reported on Telegram that one civilian was killed and four people were injured in a rocket attack on Znob-Novhorodske in Sumy region. And although a democratic Ukraine emerges intact if not unscathed, its still-dangerous neighbor faces an uncertain future with the Russian political landscape at a tipping point. That was well understood in Moscow. A new study finds foreign-born inventors generate a disproportionate share of patents and make their U.S.-born collaborators more productive. He spent more than 25 years working with the U.S. State Department, where he focused on Americas relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues. The first question is whether opposing groups at war agree about what it will take for war to end be it land, money or political control. The move comes after Putin ordered troops into two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday. When the Russian leader launched a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine last February, the Kremlin hoped to seize the capital Kyiv in a matter of days. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. The Russian leader has framed the conflict as an existential threat to his nation and has taken to calling it The Third Great Patriotic War, a reference to the Napoleonic invasions of Russia in the 1800s and the Nazi German invasions in the 1940s. But the many banking and trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe early on have done little to hurt Russias ability to wage war and thanks to cooperation from allies like China, India, and Iran, Russian consumers have not felt a significant pinch to their quality of life, said Alexandra Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. Last week contained a grim milestone: It was one year ago on Friday that Russian forces began marching towards Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv. But at this point, they are a relatively small number. So buckle up, we need to be deterring not only attacks on Kyiv but the rest of the lines.". Its economy was already battered before the conflict, so squeezing it further only makes life marginally more difficult for ordinary civilians, less so for the Kremlin. "Putin's apparent objective is to eradicate all vestiges of Ukrainian identity while condemning the country to a grim future as a military dictatorship locked firmly inside a new Russian Empire. According to him, those efforts could lead to what Ukraine feels would be an end to the war. Instead, the Kremlin has "flipped the script" from being the aggressor to the victim. Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images, Swedish Air Force/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images, After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight, Want to support the people in Ukraine? In other words, the war affected nearly every family here. Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America, told Newsweek recently that Zelenskyemboldened by Putin's recent battlefield lossescould very well try to regain control of Crimea. All wars end, however, and research shows that almost half end in some type of agreement to stop the fighting. A man whom all Ukrainians will know. What might people misunderstand or underestimate about the conflict? [g] Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War. As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and Nato then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war. The West would have to work with Kyiv so that it could maintain a robust modernized military capable of deterring a new Russian assault in the future. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. Third, resolution of ongoing and . Thus, the American intelligence community has assessed that the likeliest course is a war of attrition, with neither side capable of conducting a decisive operation that brings the war to an end. 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