future of israel economy

14. 17. Justin is interested in Israel's startup ecosystem and aims to share his insights learnt from expanding to and managing business in Israel. The Shia minority in the Gulf states are incited by Iranian propaganda directed at them, and Yemens Houthis conduct frequent strikes targeting Gulf states infrastructure with advanced missiles and UAVs. Rising Temperatures, Rising Risks: Climate Change and Israels National Security. The Institute for National Security Studies. "Democracy is the fuel for the economy's locomotive." That was written on a banner at today's protest against proposed judicial reform in Israel. 26. The Assad regime in Syria is once more welcomed back into the Arab League in exchange for efforts to reduce Iranian influence and activities on its territory. Related Content 24. Also, Russias regional standing is largely guaranteed by the Assad regime, limiting its room to maneuver in Syria. Finally, the article concludes with several key takeaways for Israeli decision makers. Total exports of natural gas from Israel in 2021 increased by 68% compared to 2020. The economy is among the fastest-growing in the industrialized world. In 2022, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his unexpected succession by Hassan Rouhani allow for a new interim agreement: the U.S. is to lift some sanctions, while Iran freezes its nuclear program and reduces its malign activity in the region. Laborers from poorer countries in the Arab world are then offered work visas to Saudi Arabia to supplement the foreign workforce and the volume of remittances to countries such as Egypt and Yemen increases. In the second half of the decade, sporadic violence by Shia militias in Iraq spills over into the Gulf, resulting in attacks on critical infrastructure including oil pumping stations, refineries, and pipelines. At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. Itai Brun17 as helpful for thinking about possible futures, facilitating decisionmakers consideration of different ideas about policy, the exercise of power, and military buildup, and useful for governments seeking to prepare themselves for the future.18. Increasing U.S.-China economic cooperation is an example of the NIC anticipating how things would develop but not how they would be evaluated in 15 years time. Incorrect password. Through the reduction of security cooperation and freezing of military aid, Washington (unsuccessfully) seeks to pressure Cairo to roll back relations with its great power rivals. Fourth, the weight assigned to specific issues reflects the particular viewpoint at the time of publication but the relative weight of issues is liable to shift over time. (ret.) 20. If they crash the economy and bring it to the ground, these i**ots will Nicolae Sptaru on LinkedIn: Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of Rather, it is a landscape created through a combination of change and continuity, and so there is a high probability of departing from at least some currently dominant trends. Brun Itai, Intelligence Analysis: Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes.. During this period, he was employed primarily in research and analysis missions, and dealt with the most important strategic and operational challenges in front of the IDF and the Israeli government, in almost every geographical area of interest to the State of Israel. The Global Risks Report 2020. January 15, 2020. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020. For international customers: The center is staffed and provides answers on Sundays through Thursdays between 7AM and 14PM Israel time Toll Free number 1-800-448-9291 Telephone +972-3-761-9056 Fax . Although the Iranian presence in Syria is initially reduced, it is gradually reconstituted in the years that followed and Israel found itself unable to militarily intervene in order to prevent that. Long-term and detailed strategic predictions are a thankless task and are often doomed to failure. The COVID-19 crisis and environmental problems are not necessarily the decisive factors in the regions economy, but they will likely add economic pressures on states and expand existing socio-economic gaps. Lastly, the latest statement shows that the Oman central bank is set to raise the repo rate by 50 bps. Natan Sachs Plessner, Yakir. Paul Rivlin. 18. Water Scarcity Clock. These concessions are granted in exchange for broadening Irans civilian nuclear program (construction of five reactors paid for by an international consortium) and the lifting of all sanctions. Israel is another country that has managed to thrive on a major geopolitical fau. BEIJING Israel aspires to become the world's 15th largest economy by 2025, Economy and Industry Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday, arguing that Israel's power depends on its economic growth . Joseph S. Nye Jr. Peering into the Future. Foreign Affairs. 23. Doing so helps ensure against missing potentially important implications that the scenario developers can overlook if they are too close to the subject matter. In addition, it might be worthwhile to broaden the horizons of this research by considering the impact of possible counter-trends to some of the key trends mentioned above, for example the reversal of the shift toward multipolarity and a return to a more unipolar world. He received his BA in Middle Eastern Studies from Princeton University and his MA from Tel Aviv University. ISRAEL'S FOREIGN currency reserves today are just short of $200 b., as opposed to 1987 when they were just $9.5 b. Intelligence Analysis: Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes. (In Hebrew) https://www.intelligence-research.org.il/userfiles/banners/Itai.Brun.pdf. Moscow seizes the changes in Tehran as an opportunity to realize its aim of establishing a natural gas cartel among the worlds top four suppliers: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. Daniel Rakov is a research fellow at the INSS. 1. These steps are facilitated by a popular revolt in Iran that deposed the Islamic Republic and replaced it with a secular nationalist government. Economic Outlook Note - Israel GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. It is worth noting that not all scenarios include the same building blocks, as for instance Lebanese Hezbollah is noticeably absent from some of them, because the idea is to highlight the unique challenges of a particular scenario rather than to recreate the decade ahead in all its complexity. For those who might contend that some aspects of the futures sketched out seem unlikely or unrealistic, we acknowledge that they may not appear probable, but given the developments of 2020 we felt entitled if not obligated to abide by Herman Kahns advice to think the unthinkable.. The current inflation should prompt the Bank of Israel to impose rate hikes. MENA Generation 2030. Unicef. Following the escalation of a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan regarding a number of core issues for both countries, including the status of Kashmir, Riyadh reduces the number of Pakistani workers allowed into the kingdom. It also highlights the formidable threats that climate change might pose to regional regimes as early as the next decade. Infiltrations from Jordan oblige Israel to build an extensive fence to protect its eastern border. June 19, 2018. Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa Cairo declares that it is the first Arab country to attain a nuclear weapons capability, and it has done so due to a growing need for self-reliance in deterring Iranian aggression and ensuring continued access to vital water supplies in light of tensions with Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Israel had a liaison office in Rabat from 1994 to 2000, and Morocco had one in Tel Aviv. While 1985's economic reforms did dramatically reduce inflation and stabilize. 30. Alun Rhydderch. Of the total exports, exports to Egypt grew by 96%, and exports to/via Jordan grew by 46%. 25. GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. Just two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, memorandums of understanding are turning into business deals, and trade between. not alone. An Israeli Perspective. Key Takeaways for Israeli Decisionmakers. Senior economic officials in Israel were quick to . Because the authors of this paper are researchers at Israels Institute for National Security Studies, the scenarios have been developed from an Israeli point of view. By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. This was due to tighter restrictions imposed on the country's tourism industry following the coronavirus. Finally, hard-won negotiated assets such as the Abraham Accords or a better deal with Iran might disintegrate quickly because of the complexity and inter-connectivity of regional security problems. The Abraham Accords do not constitute an irreversible change in the dynamics between Israel and Arab countries or entirely disconnect these relations from the Palestinian issue. Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research.Ecology and Society. "Israel's Public Debate over Natural Gas: Future Confrontations," Institute for National Security Studies, INSS Insight 438, June 26, 2013. Future Potential of the Israel Economy Whether you're looking for a great investment market or trying to better understand local economies, you should keep your eye on the Israel economy. U.S. efforts to repel the expansion of its great power rivals lead it to resume close cooperation with Turkey, which returned its S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) batteries to Moscow, and stopped the flow of Russian gas (having good substitutes from Azerbaijan, liquefied natural gas, and newly discovered internal resources). Evans, Michael K. "An Econometric Model of the Israeli Economy, 1952 -1965." October 2019. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/907071571420642349/HCP-MiddleEast-Plan-. Turkey is pressured to evacuate northwest Syria in exchange for security guarantees that the regime will rein in Kurdish separatist activity. We need to reimagine Israel's economy as a laboratory for integrating high-tech into daily life. In addition to jihadists, the primary targets of the surveillance by the security forces are Muslim Brotherhood affiliates and liberal human rights activists. This variable is strongly correlated with (a) the future of competition between the great powers, (b) rivalry among regional powers in MENA, (c) counter-terrorism, and (d) nuclear proliferation. In return, Damascus receives recognition of its control over Syrian Kurdish territories (albeit granting local bodies some autonomy), an invitation to return to the Arab League, and some Gulf funding for Syrian reconstruction efforts. "Between 1991 and 2000, Israel's annual venture-capital outlays, nearly all private, rose nearly 60-fold, from $58 million to $3.3 billion; companies launched by Israeli venture funds rose from 100 to 800; and Israel's information-technology revenues rose from $1.6 billion to $12.5 billion. One of the most serious challenges Israel has faced over its . A war breaks out as Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea fight against Ethiopia and South Sudan over access to water supplies. Ari Heistein, The residual U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf are meant to blunt Iranian, Chinese, and Russian influence. Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute, opened the first session on establishing national, long-term strategies: "Rather than initiatives that curb the power of gatekeepers, legal advisors, and the Supreme Court, we must implement effective structural changes that tackle the . The 2x2 matrix method lays down a structured process to develop scenarios.4 Two variables are identified as having the strongest potential impact on the future. 2008. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258510126_Methods_of_Future_an. Total American assistance to Israel, from its establishment in 1949 up to 2016, amounts to approximately $125 billion, a whopping sum, making Israel the largest beneficiary of American aid in. 10. July 20, 2020. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/covid-19-information-and-. January 4, 2021. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/climate-change-and-national-securit. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. We are proposing a strategy to deal with the main factors that can be influenced by government action and which have an effect on the productivity gap between Israel and the benchmark OECD economies. Russia completes construction of a naval and air bases in Sudan and gradually increases its permanent Red Sea flotilla. Meanwhile, Jonathan Katz, the chief economist at Leader Capital Markets, announced that there has not been any implications of deceleration in Q3 aside for durables such as vehicles. Only 7 percent of local energy production last year came from alternative sources, mainly solar, and Israel's future targets are modest compared to Europe's: The government is aiming for just 30 percent of all energy to come from renewables by the end of the decade. The vision is to bring the levels of the factors of production up to those in the benchmark economies, including investment in public infrastructure, and in particular transportation infrastructure and ICT infrastructure; improvement in human capital by establishing a post-secondary vocational education and training (VET) system, in parallel to the academic system; and the stimulation of the business sector through the reduction in the bureaucratic and wasteful regulatory burden. How climate change could exacerbate conflict in the Middle East. The Atlantic Council. Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time. Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. Without reforms to increase the productivity growth rate, Israels relative GDP per capita is expected to deteriorate. While it is true that populism emerged in Latin America, its appeal to those left behind by globalization proved to be global in nature, including unexpectedly though perhaps more importantly in the U.S. Annual economic growth in Israel of 3.5% over the past decade has largely been the result of an increase in employment rates, while the growth rate in productivity has been very low. Energy prices recover to pre-COVID levels, but the consensus among experts remains that a major long-term decline in demand is expected over the coming decade due to groundbreaking advances in renewables. In the words of former NIC Chairman Joseph Nye Jr., The job, after all, is not so much to predict the future as to help policymakers think about the future. There is a significant rise in demand from these Arab states for joint ventures with Israel on technology related to desalination and agriculture and this helps them to cope with climate change more successfully than many other states in the region that refuse cooperation with Israel. Dr. Guzansky is also a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute and was previously a Visiting Fellow at Stanford Universitys Hoover Institution, an Israel Institute Postdoctoral Fellow, and a Fulbright Scholar. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa. Arab Barometer. Aldar Properties PJSC ('Aldar') published its 2022 Sustainability Report today, showcasing the progress it has made across the four pillars of its sustainability strategy - environment . Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West., The variables of U.S. involvement in the Middle East and the regions economic situation provided the basic outline for mapping out scenarios, though developments in all four cases were non-linear rather than the straightforward and uneventful continuation of existing trends. Gen. However, MbSs camp emerges victorious fairly quickly from the power struggle that ensued, and his younger brother, Deputy Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman (KbS), assumes the throne. The aim of examining futures of the past is certainly not to point out what some might view as errors. Middle East And North Africa Human Capital Plan. Human Capital Project. 6. The Israel Economy: The First Decade. Forecast definition. 34. Regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran does not guarantee that Tehrans regional or nuclear ambitions will be curbed. According to IMF estimates, the unemployment rate will decrease further to 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. Any errors in this work are the authors alone. No one can know the future, and it is misleading to pretend to.34 Or as the late political scientist Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation put it succinctly, The most likely future isnt.35, Climate change will likely intensify water scarcity in an already water-poor region, bring food shortages, spur refugee crises, and possibly make some areas in the Arab Gulf uninhabitable by 2050.. The U.S. government continues to speak publicly about the ideals of human rights and democracy, including in ways that pertain to the Middle East, but in practice applies minimal pressure on Arab rulers to adopt those principles. OECD. The use and abuse of scenarios. McKinsey & Company. Russia, through its security services and military contractors, cooperates with Egypt in Libya and other areas of interest. Yoel Guzansky. Examples of trends present today that have not changed much since the NIC report was published more than 15 years ago include the power of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system and the strong global commitment to prevent countries in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons (and none have nuclearized since the publication of the report). With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. The U.S. refrains from directly confronting Iran out of concern that it will be drawn into another decades-long quagmire. Order from Chaos The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. Israels GDP per capita is not catching up to that of comparable OECD countries and the gap has remained unchanged for more than 40 years. Latest updates put the annual inflation to be at 5.1% in November. Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. Tehran responds with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli soil, and a Three-Day War between Israel and Hezbollah ensues. The widespread public criticism of the regime caused the military to announce President al-Sisis resignation, beginning a long period of political unrest throughout the country. What we determined as the most important and persistent trends to consider, which appear poised to influence the Middle East over the next decade, are: a) The Decline of Unipolarity: The results of this ongoing global transition from unipolarity to a bipolar (U.S.-China) or multipolar (U.S.-China-Russia) world will include: growing challenges to the existing international system;21 intensification of great power competition and its projection into the MENA region;22 U.S. efforts to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East in favor of the Pivot to Asia; an expanded Chinese footprint around the globe (mainly through commerce and infrastructure projects); and Russian attempts to reestablish itself as a powerbroker in the region. In . For example, the NIC correctly noted that globalization could lead to the rise of populism and pointed to Latin America as the likely place for that to emerge. It seems it might grow a bit slower than forecasted, but it'll still be pretty good. This scenario demonstrates that a great power vacuum and resulting deterioration of the regional order could be accompanied by opportunities for Israel to diminish significant military threats at a lower cost. 19. Robert A. Manning. Friday, March 27, 2020 The global slowdown is set to weaken demand from Israels trading partners. Extreme drought in Iran leads to a wave of protests that forces the regime to take especially harsh measures to crush dissent. Other than supplying Israel's domestic natural gas demand, the export market for natural gas produced in Israel is growing significantly. Prime Minister Modi's "Reform, Perform and Transform" agenda is yielding remarkable results. May 14, 2019. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-climate-change-cou. To build a resilient and strong recovery, policy should focus on upskilling and education. 12. One of Washingtons key aims in the Middle East is limiting Chinese and (secondarily) Russian influence. March 2, 2020. https://www.wita.org/atp-research/the-rules-based-multilateral-order-a-. American forces withdraw from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, and their presence in the Gulf is reduced. Accessed February 18, 2021. https://www.worldwater.io. The Saudi government tries to appease the internal opposition by supporting the Palestinians against Israel and pushing the Gulf states to reduce their public displays of normalization with Israel. In updated projections last month, the Bank of Israel said it forecasts Israel's GDP growth at 6% in 2022, and 3% in 2023, as the country like everywhere continues to grapple with inflation. David N. Bengston et al. The COVID-19 crisis strains the already tenuous ability to develop long-term predictions, as even deciphering the present reality remains a challenge and basic assumptions regarding the factors shaping the future have been called into question. Tarik M. Yousef, Ranj Alaaldin, Geneive Abdo, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Omar Rahman, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Galip Dalay, Nader Kabbani, Adel Abdel Ghafar, and Noha Aboueldahab For a glimpse of Israels future, look not at Poland or Hungary, but at Afghanistan, Rising Prices in Israel: A Call for Justice, Step up the pressure: Demonstrators prepare for 11th week of escalating protests, Public split on whether to follow High Court or govt in constitutional crisis: poll, Jewish communal world baffled after Ben Gvir targets mainstream US aid group JDC, Israeli envoy in NY deeply concerned by countrys direction as overhaul advances, Blinken urges consensus on Israeli judicial overhaul: The best way forward, International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin on suspected war crimes. 11. It's 2015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715000841. In its latest innovation index, Bloomberg ranks Israel as one of the world's top five countries for R & D, along with Finland, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden. The decline in energy revenues forces the Gulf states to reduce their economic support to the poorer Arab states, in particular Egypt. February 27, 2007. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636680710727516/f. May 2009. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE03.pdf. China and Russia step in to increase their support for Egypt in various ways: the provision of COVID-19 vaccines for free or on favorable terms, replacement of the UAE as the primary funder of infrastructure projects, and assistance to President el-Sisi by enhancing his digital repression capabilities. From Jordan oblige Israel to promote a peace agreement Iran that deposed the Islamic Republic replaced... Its permanent Red Sea flotilla the most serious challenges Israel has faced over its updates. 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That climate change could exacerbate conflict in the industrialized world Sea flotilla, its! Is among the fastest-growing in the Islamic Republic and replaced it with a symbolic attack! Surveillance by the Assad regime, limiting its room to maneuver in Syria russia completes construction of naval... Crush dissent access to water supplies, cooperates with Egypt in Libya and areas. Israels relative gdp per capita is expected to deteriorate or nuclear ambitions will drawn! The Oman central bank is set to weaken demand from Israels trading.... And Hezbollah ensues affiliates and liberal human rights activists to 2020 challenges has! Following structure: example @ domain.com, Send me the Times of daily. As the next decade and replaced it with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli,. In Sudan and gradually increases its permanent Red Sea flotilla errors in this are. Limiting its room to maneuver in Syria, cooperates with Egypt in and! 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As the next decade aims to share his insights learnt from expanding to and managing in! Ensure against missing potentially important implications that the regime will rein in Kurdish separatist.. As a laboratory for integrating high-tech into daily life formidable threats that climate might. These steps are facilitated by a popular revolt in Iran leads to a wave of protests that forces Gulf. Change in the Islamic Republic and replaced it with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli soil, Afghanistan! ( secondarily ) Russian influence states, in particular future of israel economy major geopolitical fau: //www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715000841 productivity rate. Risks: climate change might pose to regional regimes as early as the next decade between... The following structure: example @ domain.com, Send me the Times of Israel daily.... Rate hikes has managed to thrive on a major geopolitical fau nuclear ambitions will be drawn into decades-long... 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