foreign policy experts on ukraine

The collapse of SVB is a reminder that the fastest way for the United States to cede ground in the present era of great power competition is to debase its financial system and relinquish its global financial leadership position. And so we need at some point to choose to change the paradigm that Mr. Putin sees works with the West. I think we need to make that broader picture part of the conversation when we talk about what our strategic aims are and when we think its time to try to wrestle this conflict to an end. The court has issued arrest warrants for the Russian president and another senior official over the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children. DOUGHERTY: Charlie, President Putin has been really maximalist in this. But the premise for that to be a viable option where we can have a genuine negotiation means that the Russians want to come to the table. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said last week that Ukraine should be willing to give up territory to Russia in exchange for its continued sovereignty, an argument that was rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The experts said Ukraine emerging from the conflict as a sovereign and democratic state that is in charge of its own foreign policy, militarily strong, territorially secure and economically viable is in U.S. national interests. But the country was doing OK. Ukraine didnt have Crimea since 2014, and it was doing OK. And that is what we should be talking about here. May 4, 2022, The SVB Collapse Shows U.S. Vulnerabilities Amid Great Power Competition, Blog Post And I think thats important because, again, I go back to my theory that if you continue to allow bad behavior to stand or, worse yet, as we did in 08, and 14, and looked like we might do in 23, if you reward bad behavior, youre going to get more bad behavior. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker. Rajan Menon is the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a professor emeritus at the City College of New Yorks Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, and a senior research fellow at Columbia Universitys Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. The examples are endless. Thomas Graham And indeed, they even suggested that the Donbas did notor, complete control of the Donbas didnt have to be part of the initial settlement. If we think we can increase the conflict along some line in Ukraine and thats going to remain the status quo, you know, over and over again the Russians have used those territories to be staging grounds to launch more and more aggressive attacks. Now, whether its NATO or not, it would have to probablyNATO would have to change its internal rules of order, because as long as Russians are occupying Ukrainian land, they will not be brought into NATO. These sweeping prognostications, unsupported by solid evidence, amount to wild, airy claims. And how might that be impacting the world? One year in, the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending. SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST: A number of. Its really a dream team of voices and so much insight. This week, Ravi Agrawal is joined by Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO Suprem Show Foreign Policy Live, Ep America's Role in Helping Ukraine - Mar 17, 2023 . We give Ukraine what they need to get as far as they can in this fighting season. A curated selection of our very best long reads. What the U.S. government may or may not do in one region of the world tells us next to nothing about what it might do in another. How does the war end, right? Thank you. The Russians obviously didnt care. Chinas colossal infrastructure investments may usher in a new era of trade and growth for economies in Asia and beyond. If that is less than a whole Ukraine, then that is where we will see a new line of contact. One year later, CFRs background and analysis tracks the course of the war and its lasting repercussions. And clearly the military port on Crimea, Sevastopol, is incredibly important. POLYAKOVA: Yeah, thanks for bringing that up, because I think a missing piece of this conversation has beenweve been focusing a lot on a military solution, but truthfully theres a suite of tools that we have already deployed as the Western alliance to impose consequences on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine. They are the victim him. How Much Aid Has the U.S. (Laughs.) You know, despite the kind of public pressure that Zelensky obviously has, that we were talking about earlier, what they proposed, to my mind, for a country that has lost so much and is under constant brutal attack, is quite impressive, right? What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives. The U.S. decision to extricate itself from a failing two-decade war in Afghanistan may therefore prove of little value in predicting how it might react were Russia to attack Eastern Europe. And I think its this year the war has to end. Yeah. March 14, 2023 Russian President Vladimir Putin, once thought of as a master strategist and savvy opportunist, has exposed himself as a mere mortal whose obsession with personal glory has both degraded his countrys geopolitical positionto take one example, NATO will soon have two additional members, one of which, Finland, shares a long border with Russiaand harmed its future prospects. If you couple that with the compactthe Kyiv Security Compact that Secretary General Rasmussen and Yermak have been working on with some kind of realist security guarantees, it seems to me you could have some sort of strong guarantee, and leave Crimea and maybe even the Donbas to a phase two, especially if weif you all are right, that this is the decisive year and a war prolonged beyond this year could get very dicey for Ukraine. BREEDLOVE: OK. Great. And when would we have tohow does that fit into the current battlefield dynamic? Theres not going to be, you know, a Ukraine that is the breadbasket of Europe and the world again. The other is that Russia made a policy decision and/or an operational decision to interfere with a U.S. flight physically. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with James Stavridis, a retired four-star U.S. Navy admiral and NATO supreme allied commander. They have failed. We dont really have the ability to put that pressure on from the Russ. Delivered Wednesday. As the war drags on in the Donetsk region, military experts are gaming out what a prolonged conflict might look like. One Year of War in Ukraine: Are Sanctions Against Russia Making a Difference? with Philip M. Breedlove, Charles A. Kupchan and Alina Polyakova Before joining FP in 2018, Agrawal worked at CNN for more than a decade in full-time roles spanning three continents, including as the networks New Delhi bureau chief and correspondent. They dont have enough tanks. by Olivia Angelino, Thomas J. Bollyky, Elle Ruggiero and Isabella Turilli Even if Moscow holds onto territory, the war has wrecked its future. Some NATO allies were either opposed to the U.S. withdrawal or dismayed by the manner in which Washington implemented it. NATO has expanded its presence along the eastern flank tremendously over the lastcertainly, and it possibly could get bigger. By 1970, you had a war of attrition. Join the conversation on this and other recent Foreign Policy articles when you subscribe now. The Long War in Ukraine, With Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. Tune in for the inside scoop and watch FPs reporters in conversation with the magazines executive editor, Amelia Lester. The collision did not happen, actually, during the intercept. We have already seen them use that. In the meantime, the Russians are rebuilding their military. So if you have a basket case economy, which the U.S. will not support foreverno steel exports, grain exports at Russias permission, destroyed economy which no one will invest in if you cant export, and theres a threat of another warhow do you have a strong, viable Ukraine? So much like my kids and my grandkids, if you allow bad behavior to stand, or if you reward bad behavior, youre going to get more bad behavior, and Mr. Putin will be back again. So unused to being challenged, the United States has become so filled with anxiety over China that sober responses are becoming nearly impossible. In fact, there is a substantial amount of scholarship on the significance of credibility, and the findings lead to the opposite conclusion. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor and former U.S. Despite overwhelming evidence that balance-of-power dynamics in a particular context are the North Star of countries foreign-policy choices, the credibility thesis remains ubiquitous in American popular discourse. You know, those cheap Iranian-made drones are causing a lot of damage and the Ukrainians are shooting multimillion-dollar missiles at them. Tune in for the inside scoop and watch FPs reporters in conversation with the magazines executive editor, Amelia Lester. And thats going to be difficult moving forward. (Laughter.) Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. We should not be, you know, strongarming Ukrainians into any kind of negotiated solution. You know, on the security guarantee side, NATO, to my mind, has to remain on the horizon. And I am not picking out things. When asked, I typically say the following, and that is that this war will end the way that the West wants it to end. Delivered Friday. It basically took an American deploymentthe largest projection of military force since the 91 Gulf War, to take care of Saddam. What can the world do to shape the wars outcome? with Ivan Kanapathy, Bonny Lin and Stephen S. Roach Trump attorney says there wont be a standoff at Mar-a-Lago if hes Only two large US cities are affordable for new home buyers, Florida textbook altered to remove references to Rosa Parkss race: report. Not one of these claims is supported by solid evidence. Theres a 1,000-mile border between Russia and Ukraine. And I wonderedI take General Breedloves point that Crimea makes defense of Ukraine, or Ukraines self-defense, or any kind of NATO assistance to Ukraines defense, pretty formidable. DOUGHERTY: I think well go to questions in the room. DOUGHERTY: General Breedlove, will deal with that other question. Thank you very much and to be continued, more debate. I think we need to be really clear about that, is that people are laying down their lives not just for themselves and their own country and their land, but for Europes security architecture which, by definition, is also our security architecture, as the U.S. is part of NATO, of course. So if we end up in a stalemate, it is because we have been deterred and we are choosing to end up in that stalemate. No matter the goal, Washington needs to quickly fill gaps in defense production. A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. I thought it was very interesting that Ron DeSantis, whos always putting his finger up to say which way is the wind blowing, has aligned himself more with Trump than with the hawkish wing of the Republican Party. This is where our focus needs to be. And I think theyve shown themselves to be, you know, very, I think, rational, in fact, for a country that is suffering a huge, huge amount, given the circumstances. by Lindsay Maizland So this is, like, just skipping, you know, nine years of that is just misrepresentation of reality. Hawley in back-and-forth with local reporter: Just want to make sure Republicans seek to flip the script on Social Security. And even according to Russian law, as I understand it, they cannot give back territory that they have taken. Thats not a sustainable model. They want to keep their own territory. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? And then, again, those territories became the launching ground for a full-scale invasion. Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia. I dont think were there. And again, I think that the conditions on the battlefield then would set the table for how the peace is made. Meanwhile, Kyiv has received a major infusion of military aid from the West in the last three months. As we talked about before, it has suffered two strategic losses and on the verge of an operational loss, and its making no ground in its current push. Evening roundup with our editors favorite stories of the day. You know, we have an opportunity here to basically get rid of what we have seen as either a competitor, or an adversary, or an acute threat, to use the most recent language, to the United States, Russia. Religion and Foreign Policy Webinars, C.V. Starr & Co. So I guess Im asking you to solve this, cut this knot. by Lindsay Maizland To believe otherwise is not only misplaced; its dangerous, because such reasoning could lead the U.S. government to make choiceslike continuing a war that it cannot win or intervening in conflicts that are of scant consequence to U.S. intereststhat waste its resources, all in the name of credibility. In fact, what they keep doing is what they did just yesterday, which is these little pokes and provocations to see how the West is going to respond, and based on our response they understand how far they can go. We think that we have a solution now because they can export now, and the Russians have agreed to the export, or its being negotiated right now, from Ukrainian ports. March 16, 2023, 7:19 AM. Were still not quite there in terms of all the allies providing the Leopard tanks in particular in a timely manner. I do not believe that a decisive defeat inside of Ukraine is going to change Russia. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. Top weaponization subcommittee Democrat: Jim Jordan not an honest Zuckerberg grilled at staff meeting after Meta layoff announcement, How an algae bloom could put Floridas spring break at risk. So this is not a contained conflict. February 23, 2023 Tai counters critics who say the United States is fostering unfair competition over semiconductors and clean energy. Experts discuss the U.S. policy options available in Ukraine and how the current military situation on the ground affects what the United States should do next to achieve its goal in the region. Munich Security Conference, Biden Visits Poland, Israels Judiciary Overhaul, and More. So this is very much a decisive year. Bloodshed in Ukraine has placed Jewish leaders in a difficult position, but our overarching mission is to remain with our communities. You know, as the general pointed out, were certainly not dealing with it as a situation of that. Ive stopped talking about things. C.V. Starr & Co. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is widely expected to run for president in 2024, raised alarms among traditional GOP hawks and conservative pro-Israel foreign policy experts.. A spokesperson for DeSantis did not respond to requests for comment . with James M. Lindsay, Shannon K. O'Neil, Ester Fang and Gabrielle Sierra Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said on ABCs This Week that a no-fly zone means World War III.. OK, so were at the point where we are going to turn, please, to inviting members to our conversation with their questions. Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? There are still American companies who are providing specific components that Russia needs for some of its military systems. And, you know, I do think that the conversation is starting to change in this town. This would create direct military conflict between the U.S. and Russia, inching the world closer to a nuclear war. What we have seen on the battlefield is that when a Ukrainian military force that is well-equipped. No audio? There is a greater multitude of voices. NATO is a long-term potential model for security. And I disagree with General Breedlove and Alina that a Ukraine that doesnt have Crimea is not sustainable. This years meeting is the first since the end of zero-COVID restrictions; itsalso an opportunity to get an inside look into the Chineseleaderships fears and priorities. Europe, I think, were seeing steadiness, but how long is that going to last? BREEDLOVE: So let me agree with you on a few things, and then let me showpoint out a difference from where I think you are. So if thisif we dont bring this war to an end this year, the chances of this going on in a forever war kind of way increase, I think, quite exponentially. So how the war ends is a very broad and I think very controversial subject, and we have three people who will help us to examine the possibilities and also the pitfalls of that: General Philip Breedlove, whom we can see on the screenhe is virtualthere joining us; and Charlie Kupchan, right here; and Alina Polyakova. Test yourself on the week of March 11: Saudi Arabia posts big oil profits, a Dutch populist party triumphs, and foreign films make headlines at the Oscars. I mean, I think that the positions of the Russians and the positions of the Ukrainians obviously dont overlap. How Bad Is Ukraines Humanitarian Crisis a Year Later? What I want to ask, Charlie said that Ukraine didnt have Crimea after 2014 and the country was doing OK. This looks a little bit more deliberate, and I think thats going to cause our government to have to consider their actions going forward. One year after the invasion began, heres what they have achieved and where critics say theyve fallen short. 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